Steve,

At some point in this exercise we must assign probabilities for contingencies, as well as for their hypothetical consequences.

Would you be so kind as to convey the Business Constituency's assigned probability for:

1. termination of the AoC between the USG and the incumbent contractor, by the USG, while leaving the IANA Functions contract otherwise unchanged?

2. termination of the AoC between the USG and the Corporation, by the Corporation, while retaining the IANA Functions contract otherwise unchanged?

Sincerely,

Eric Brunner-Williams
Eugene, Oregon

On 1/11/15 12:27 PM, Steve DelBianco wrote:
Eric — I think we have a fundamental disconnect on the meaning and purpose of stress tests.  You keep asking about past events, or about why we believe a scenario WOULD happen.

But the purpose of scenarios/stress tests is to design plausible situations that help us test accountability mechanisms we have now or are proposing to create.   Stress tests are not predictive.  We do not need to justify a scenario, or show why it is likely to happen.  

Nor do we want to be preoccupied with past events.  Indeed, the benefit of doing future scenarios is that we avoid fighting over our differing interpretations of past events.

As a software guy, you need more than high-level principles to develop an application.  Programming requires anticipating scenarios where users don't follow the expected routine.  For non-programmers, here's an analogy: It's a good principle to practice safe driving in winter weather. It's a scenario to prepare for and respond to a specific situation, such as having your car spin sideways on a snow-covered road.

Steve


From: Eric Brunner-Williams <ebw@abenaki.wabanaki.net>
Date: Sunday, January 11, 2015 at 3:13 PM
To: Steve DelBianco <sdelbianco@netchoice.org>, Mathieu Weill <mathieu.weill@afnic.fr>, Thomas Rickert <rickert@anwaelte.de>, "\"leonfelipe@sanchez.mx >> León Felipe Sánchez Ambía\"" <leonfelipe@sanchez.mx>
Cc: "ccwg-accountability4@icann.org" <ccwg-accountability4@icann.org>
Subject: Business Constituency Stress Test #1

Steve,

Members of the Business Constituency are aware that on November 10, 2011, the Department of Commerce issued a Request for Proposal (RFP) SA1301-12-RP-IANA for a new IANA functions contract with a deadline of December 19, 2011. 

Members of the Business Constituency are also aware that the government reserved the right to cancel any solicitation that did not meet the requirements _requested_by_the_global_community_ (emphasis added).

Members of the Business Constituency are also aware that the government canceled this RFP because no proposals were received that met the requirements requested.

Members of the Business Constituency are also aware that the only proposal received by the government for that RFP was the proposal submitted by the Corporation.

Could you clarify why the Business Constituency believes that the government might "choose to terminate the Affirmation of Commitments", apparently an expression of the requirements requested by the global community?

Similarly, you clarify why the Business Constituency believes that the Corporation might "choose to terminate the Affirmation of Commitments", again, apparently an expression of the requirements requested by the global community?

Thanks in advance for the clarifications.

Eric Brunner-Williams
Eugene, Oregon