Rick, I agree with your conclusions. However I believe it will happen much sooner. 1) The 2005 budget went into effect on July 1, 2004. Your $0.25 per transaction invoice for last quarter should be arriving from ICANN this month. 2) On March 31st of this year, there were 168 Registrars that had registered domains in at least 1 gTLD. 3) On July 27th, VeriSign cut the batch pool connections from 30 to 20 per Registrar. 4) On August 20th, VeriSign cut the batch pool connections from 20 to 10 per Registrar. 5) In July and August of this year, 136 new Registrars were accredited by ICANN. 6) At the same time, VeriSign was only able to activate 58 new Registrars. 7) On September 10th (the last time I checked), there were 331 Registrars active with VeriSign. (Some may not have started registering domains yet.) 8) I speculate that as of September 10th, there were approximately 110+ Registrars waiting in the VeriSign queue to be activated. 9) On September 20th, VeriSign stated they hope to activate 5 to 10 new Registrars per week. Best case, this is an 11-12 week delay and who knows how many new Registrars sent in paperwork in September. 10) As of October 1, there were 443 different IANA codes issued for Registrars. (Some may be for Registrars that are no longer in business, but this should be a small fraction of the total.) 11) With the reduction in domains being dropped and the number of Registrars fighting over the remaining dropped names, there is no long-term market for the *individual* Registrar who focuses on low-volume, high-dollar domain name sales. Clearly the vast majority of these new Registrars are entities intended to be "partners" with existing Registrars. Others may have better numbers than I. I typically only check these types of statistics about once a quarter. Cheers, _Mike -----Original Message----- From: owner-registrars@gnso.icann.org [mailto:owner-registrars@gnso.icann.org]On Behalf Of Rick Wesson Sent: Tuesday, October 05, 2004 12:47 PM To: Registrars List Subject: [registrars] drop pool registrars Registrars: Several months back I sent in an accreditation request to ICANN to accredit a new entity. There was soo much commotion about the drop-pool and how much ICANN was going to make off the registrars participating in it. It looks like alot of folks did what I did and created a new entity and sent in the accreditation paperwork. ICANN sat on my accreditation which they received August 5th and just yesterday, after a flurry of e-mail, announced that my application was almost complete. I just had a few minor hoops to jump through. I then poked veriSign and inquired how long it would take to become operational -- Well the "word" is that I'm looking at near "the end of the year" which in my mind means something like Jan 2005 or some 3 to 4 months from now. VeriSign stated that they are processing 5-10 applications per week, meaning there are some 60-120 registrars in front of my accreditation. The business decision is easy, game over. There is little incentive for creating a registrar that becomes operational in '05 with the batch-pool fees set as they are. This is not a big deal its nearly the end of the registrar boom cycle. the down side is that its be beginning of the registrar bust cycle, and ICANN's mandate for a stable DNS will be tested over this period. Let me reiterate the bust is for the little guy not the big fish, they will just pick up the registrants of the little failures that we will see. First the drop-pool revenue will decrease as Network Solutions and 2Cows implement their new auction models thus draining the number of available names for the various auction houses. the registrar that thrives of this as a majority of their income will start to have issues. As the new fee structure hits in '05 we will see registrars faced with a 13K initial outlay for their 1st quarter ICANN fees (plus $.25 per transaction) If you are not going to clear $13K in Jan-Mar '05 then you will rethink your accreditation. I expect to see about 75 registrars request to be decredited by June 2005. As the cost of accreditation meets then exceeds the revenue that one can obtain by participating in a drop pool I expect a lot of these registrars will leave the club. This will increase the amount each registrar pays of the 3.8 Million in increased fees. By years end the increased burden on small registrars by the exit of the batch-pool-only registrars should significantly hurt the viability of most small and mid-sized registrars. If ICANN is able to pick up the pieces the industry will probably continue on healthy, having the large registrars pick up registrants from some 150 small and mid sized registrars businesses will help their bottom line and create new barriers to entry. The big questions is can just a few large registrars bare the entirety of the 3.8M registrar fees? Well, they don't have to. No registrar will pay more than 20K in ICANN fees, which will leave ICANN in worse shape. If you believe that ICANN was sufficiently staffed for its mandate -- we will test this and many other things as we witness the first real full business cycle in our industry. now, I'm going to tell ICANN that they can stuff my application for accreditation and I'm not going to make it operational. Anyone need an accreditation, its in-queue with a 90 day ETA -- just name your price =) -rick ps I'm often wrong -- but, your mileage will vary.