Here are some figures that may be of interest for our discussion tomorrow. Avri had replied to my question about the basis fir her belief that the IGO PDP would be done before new gTLD delegation. She did not copy the ALAC, but has said it was an accidental omission and I am including her reply below. Current estimates that I have heard indicate that the first TLD agreements may be signed in the latter half of next year and be read for Sunrise soon thereafter (allowing trademark owners to protect their names) and general registration soon after. Avri's estimate is just a bit longer. Note however, that Sunrise and registration can start before the names enter the root. It is estimated that the absolute shortest time a PDP could take is 191 days (about 6 /12 months) from the time the Final Issue Report is released until the time the recommendations got to the Board). That presumes that all deliberations take place during the same 5 weeks that SG have to submit statements on their opinions (allowing no time to take those statements into account), the reports is written in a week, and there are no receiving action from the GNSO or Board. This is for a simple PDP with virtually no discussion needed to resolve the issue. The time from the request of an Issue Report (again with minimal delays) is 263 days or 9 months. The time for a more typical PDP is estimated at 1 year longer. These figures can be found as attachments to http://gnso.icann.org/mailing-lists/archives/council/msg13099.html. To see what real PDPs have taken, see the other attachment. Note that all of these were done under the old PDP rules which allowed for a significantly shorter process. The shortest ones in recent history took 415 days. One added a clarification sentence to a reason for allowing a Registrar to deny a transfer (http://gnso.icann.org/en/meetings/minutes-gnso-16oct08.shtml). The other, the PDP on Domain Tasting was resolved primarily by private discussions and two registries voluntarily implementing the "solution" which was then echoed by the PDP. There was very little discussion other than to identify an effective way of addressing the problem without unreasonably penalizing Registrars who were not participating in Tasting. The other two, far more substantive, took 2.4 to 3 years (as noted, according to the old, and more streamlined PDP rules). By any measure (if only based on the amount of discussion this issue has raised in the ALAC), the IGO protection issue is not an easy one where all parties will agree quickly. The only possible exception to this is if all parties come to the table believing that no additional protections are needed, and can QUICKLY address all of the process that is being included in the Issue Report. If indeed the PDP completes in record time, then the provisions of the compromise proposal of the RC/IOC DT would never kick in, since they would be replaced by whatever comes out of the PDP. Alan At 24/09/2012 12:37 AM, Avri Doria wrote:
Hi,
PDP can be done in 9-12 months. New TLDs in root, not until end 13, beginning 14.
At 23/09/2012 09:05 PM, Alan Greenberg wrote: Avri,
Can you share your reasoning with us? Specifically, how long are you predicting the PDP will take from the time it is approved by Council, and when do you believe the first TLDs will enter their sunrise period accepting reservations for 2nd level names?
Alan
At 19/09/2012 09:52 PM, Avri Doria wrote:
Unlike Alan, I beleive that a PDP can complete in time.