45 days remaining supply of IPV4?
Here's one online tool predicting an IANA exhaustion date of Feb 20, 2011 http://www.potaroo.net/tools/ipv4/ -- - Evan
Le 03/01/2011 22:42, Evan Leibovitch a écrit :
Here's one online tool predicting an IANA exhaustion date of Feb 20, 2011 http://www.potaroo.net/tools/ipv4/
I suppose all predictions are going to be highly inaccurate. The closer you get to an event, the less likely you are to be able to predict it. Take the weather, for example, you'll be perfectly happy with a prediction about the average temperature predicted for next July, but entirely dissatisfied if you're told it will be sunny tomorrow and it rains. The weather service makes these mistakes all the time because it is easier for them to work on macro analysis based on statistics than micro analysis based on today's data. All to say that a prediction date will be highly affected by the way each block will be allocated. delegate a chunk, and the date jumps forward. One thing is for sure: we, Internet users, are in serious trouble, probably worse than anyone has ever led you to believe. We *are* going to hit the wall. It *is* going to hurt. Fingers *will* be pointed at the incompetence of CIOs to realise this in time. And yes, users *will* foot the bill. Sorry to be so dull. Olivier -- Olivier MJ Crépin-Leblond, PhD http://www.gih.com/ocl.html
It isn't as bad as most thinks....IANA may be exhausted but the RIRs have reserves. And even RIRs runs out, the ISPs have their buffer. This will drag out for another 4-5 years at least before the Internet users is going to feel an effect of IANA exhaustion in Feb/Jun/Dec (pick your prediction, but definitely within 2011). This is not to say we do not do anything about it (we should!) but there is plenty of time and not panic about it yet. -James Seng On Tue, Jan 4, 2011 at 7:04 AM, Olivier MJ Crepin-Leblond <ocl@gih.com> wrote:
Le 03/01/2011 22:42, Evan Leibovitch a écrit :
Here's one online tool predicting an IANA exhaustion date of Feb 20, 2011 http://www.potaroo.net/tools/ipv4/
I suppose all predictions are going to be highly inaccurate. The closer you get to an event, the less likely you are to be able to predict it. Take the weather, for example, you'll be perfectly happy with a prediction about the average temperature predicted for next July, but entirely dissatisfied if you're told it will be sunny tomorrow and it rains. The weather service makes these mistakes all the time because it is easier for them to work on macro analysis based on statistics than micro analysis based on today's data. All to say that a prediction date will be highly affected by the way each block will be allocated. delegate a chunk, and the date jumps forward.
One thing is for sure: we, Internet users, are in serious trouble, probably worse than anyone has ever led you to believe. We *are* going to hit the wall. It *is* going to hurt. Fingers *will* be pointed at the incompetence of CIOs to realise this in time. And yes, users *will* foot the bill.
Sorry to be so dull.
Olivier
-- Olivier MJ Crépin-Leblond, PhD http://www.gih.com/ocl.html
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Allow me to add some nuances and comments. On Tue, 4 Jan 2011 09:16:35 +0800, James Seng wrote:
It isn't as bad as most thinks....IANA may be exhausted but the RIRs have reserves. And even RIRs runs out, the ISPs have their buffer. This will drag out for another 4-5 years at least before the Internet users is going to feel an effect of IANA exhaustion
The common wisdom here is that RIRs will run out of IPv4 blocks 9 to 12 months after IANA. ISPs might revert to carrier grade NAT (CGN) to extend the life of IPv4 a bit, but that itself will create other problems. On the hosting side, one can have hundreds of web sites behind one IPv4 address. From the ISPs' point of view, this not necessarily as bad as it sounds. To the contrary, CGN will allow them to better control what their customers get access to. Depending on the local context, it may be an additional value for their business, or the governement's political agenda.
On Tue, Jan 4, 2011 at 7:04 AM, Olivier MJ Crepin-Leblond wrote:
Fingers *will* be pointed at the incompetence of CIOs
CIOs are not necessarily "incompetent". Their company expects them to deliver a trouble-free service. To summarize the result of an assessment made by my employer's IT dept: Major problem: HW equipment (load balancers, firewalls, proxy servers, routers) not yet mature. Many local developments need to be updated. Some legacy apps cannot. Minor problem: many off-the-shelf software products do not yet support IPv6. Service provisioning: Our ISPs are only offering "best effort" for IPv6 support. No SLAs, risk of lack of service quality In summary, CIOs cannot be expected to deliver a second rate Internet access to the company. At least in the corporate environment, expect IPv4 to be there for another 10 to 15 years, in parallel with IPv6.
We *are* going to hit the wall. It *is* going to hurt.
Agree. But the reasons may not be those one might think of in first instance. The industry is being slow in delevering tools that allow the operations of IPv6 just as easily as it is now for IPv4. I tend to agree with this post on the Gartner blog,as far as companies are concerned: http://blogs.gartner.com/john_pescatore/2010/06/11/guest-blogger-lawrence-or... For individuals, home users, i.e. the major population served by the At-Large, it might be slightly different. Still, content providers take no risk. Their current offering in v6 is clearly separate from their main v4 offering (eg ipv6.cnn.com), because there is no such thing yet as a global IPv6 Internet. Many peering agreements are still missing, misconfigured client computers are millions, etc. If IPv6 does not work well on the client side, the average user will think that the "web site is slow" and go elsewhere. It is not a surprise that Google, for example, only peers in v6 with ISPs who demonstrate excellent connectivity to Google. They just do not want their users to switch to Bing. See http://www.google.com/intl/en/ipv6/ On a related note, I am quite disturbed to see now a flow of new RFCs coming out related to IPv6. It just gives the impression to it is now yet ready for mass deployment. So, I agree we should continue our efforts to get a larger support for IPv6, but we should at the same time avoid the simplistic view that "everything is ready, we just need to turn it on". It is factually incorrect. Sorry to be even more dull ... Patrick
participants (4)
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Evan Leibovitch -
James Seng -
Olivier MJ Crepin-Leblond -
Patrick Vande Walle