Le 03/01/2011 22:42, Evan Leibovitch a écrit :
Here's one online tool predicting an IANA exhaustion date of Feb 20, 2011 http://www.potaroo.net/tools/ipv4/
I suppose all predictions are going to be highly inaccurate. The closer you get to an event, the less likely you are to be able to predict it. Take the weather, for example, you'll be perfectly happy with a prediction about the average temperature predicted for next July, but entirely dissatisfied if you're told it will be sunny tomorrow and it rains. The weather service makes these mistakes all the time because it is easier for them to work on macro analysis based on statistics than micro analysis based on today's data. All to say that a prediction date will be highly affected by the way each block will be allocated. delegate a chunk, and the date jumps forward. One thing is for sure: we, Internet users, are in serious trouble, probably worse than anyone has ever led you to believe. We *are* going to hit the wall. It *is* going to hurt. Fingers *will* be pointed at the incompetence of CIOs to realise this in time. And yes, users *will* foot the bill. Sorry to be so dull. Olivier -- Olivier MJ Crépin-Leblond, PhD http://www.gih.com/ocl.html