I'm drawn to Evan's very insightful analysis......and speculation on end game. The only caution I would have here is that while new players head of the stream + the probability of new business models in play likely mean game change, not all the business models proposed might be benign to the public interest. Take, for example, Amazon's .kids and the other Applicant Support maybe .kids application? Looking at the details certainly raise a few 'hmmmms'. - Carlton ============================== Carlton A Samuels Mobile: 876-818-1799 *Strategy, Planning, Governance, Assessment & Turnaround* ============================= On Fri, Jun 15, 2012 at 1:06 PM, Evan Leibovitch <evan@telly.org> wrote:
On 15 June 2012 11:23, "Michele Neylon :: Blacknight" < michele@blacknight.ie
wrote:
I think a couple of the mainstream media outlets picked up on this, but this really worries me and probably others:
http://www.internetnews.me/2012/06/14/big-brands-trying-to-corner-generic-na...
I think that the entrance of the Big Brands is the best possible "unintended consequence" of the TLD expansion for content providers and end users. It blows wide open the ICANN domain industry bubble and exposes it to the real world. Verisign goes from being the big guy in the room to one of the small ones. And the influx of radically different business models is indeed the introduction of true competition.
New players in the domain space (such as Google, Microsoft, Amazon and Apple) means:
- Who needs the middleman of registrars? All of them have their own well established retail mechanisms, and registrars offer them no value that they don't already have.
- Since these companies already have strong global Internet infrastructures (and at least one has already been playing<https://developers.google.com/speed/public-dns/>with domain name infrastructures), they have no need for any of the service providers who currently control the name space and think they control ICANN
- The Verisign "market power" problem evaporates, but for different reasons than expected. (It wouldn't surprise me if they were a buyout target soon)
- Registries who make their money from advertising, or data, or sales of other things, will have the freedom to give away domains for free (and not just in those cheesy hosting/domain-name bundles), or to lease/rent them as needed
- The big brands will likely offer more stability and be more vigilant (for example, about WHOIS data) than the status quo; they -- unlike ICANN -- have corporate reputations, other business lines and valued government relationships to protect
- At the registries that give away domains, there is no incentive for domainers or speculators; as a result their namespace is far cleaner (and genuine content providers are more likely to find the names they want), and thus more trusted by end users than the domain-for-sale registries
- The free offerings at new registries will have a positive (to end users and registrants) side-effect of dramatically lowering the value of speculative domains in new AND existing registries (especially the ccTLDs masquerading as gTLDs -- I'm looking at you, Colombia)
Michele, you know I love you. But I think you're right to be concerned. If the rollout happens as you fear and I hope for, registrars face the same future as travel agents. But just as some travel agents still survive by servicing the hell out of clients and being far more than mere middleman in a financial transaction, so will be the case for registrars that thrive in ICANN's post-expansion era.
I've always been cynical about the gTLD expansion because all I'd seen from it was ICANN's usual suspects engaging in their little power trips, shell games and speculation plays. And indeed many of the gTLD applications appear to indicate simply a higher-stakes form of domaining. But now that a bigger picture is emerging, I'm happier to see the expansion take place, and welcome the new big players into the family of registries.
The gTLD expansion was at the outset a play mainly of pure greed and vanity, designed to satisfy demand that was mostly manufactured, or non-existent. It's gratifying to see the end results playing out in "be careful what you wish for" fashion.
- Evan _______________________________________________ At-Large mailing list At-Large@atlarge-lists.icann.org https://atlarge-lists.icann.org/mailman/listinfo/at-large
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