On 09/09/2019 22:06, Holly Raiche wrote:
Thanks Andrei and Bastiaan
And Jonathan - perhaps this should be part of our larger discussion on subsequent procedures? I know the SSAC report 105 (??) on the rate of delegations has been discussed in that WG - and by the CPWG. But has this been canvassed?
The issue of domain abuse and new gTLDs formed the backdrop of some of our concerns arising from the reports on the CCRT report
One of the big problems with the CCRT report was that with "parking", it hadn't a clue about what it was trying to measure, hadn't a clue about how to go about measuring it and got it all very, very wrong. As for the "awareness" surveys, the numbers of registrations, the zombie TLDs and the wastelands of some new gTLDs don't quite support those glowing endorsements. The estimates of "parking" in the CCRT report were, not to put too fine a point on it, rubbish. It classified redirects as parking! The attempt to try to estimate which categories of usage delete most based on using two completely different sets of domain name data from different years was pure pseudo-science with a thin veneer of mathematics to make it appear plausible. It was so stupid that it wasn't even wrong. To properly measure which categories are most prone to deletion, one has to track domain name usage from registration to deletion. It should not have been included in the report which, apart from getting the whole "parking" issue massively wrong and including happy-clappy, feel-good "awareness" surveys, did contain some good and well-researched information. Heavy discounting and free domain names simply attracts bad activity to a TLD and it eventually drives out any real development in a TLD because the TLD gets a bad name. It also locks the gTLD registry into a boom and bust cycle of based on discounting promotions. This did not start with the new gTLDs. One of the new gTLDs that supposedly had only "70% parking" really had over a million adult affiliate landing pages and only around 1K of active websites. It currently has less than 500 active sites. There was a Dutch report quoted in the CCRT report suggesting that a lot of spam activity moved from the legacy gTLDs to the new gTLDs purely because of the low cost of registrations. That new gTLD went from around 2 million registrations at the start of 2019 to around 35K registrations today. The new registry management decided to increase the wholesale registration/renewal fees in August 2018. So much for those 30% of non-parked websites! It highlights the abject cluelessness of the CCRT report on dealing with stuffed zonefiles. Normal registration and renewal fees cause problems for the economic model of webspam and e-mail spam. Free and heavily discounted registration fees enable it. Restricting the use of discounting promotions would be one way of solving the problem for subsequent rounds of new gTLDs. The webspam issue is a problem because there is even some quite sophisticated software available to generate seemingly convincing websites by scraping other websites, blogs and search engine results. These can generate thousands of websites at a time. The other part of the equation is the low price of registrations. It does not affect gTLDs with normal to high registration fees but is a feature of gTLDs were heavy discounting and freebie promotions are used to stuff the zonefile. Without discounting, most of the leading new gTLDs would have difficulty maintaining their number of registrations. Discounting is a highly cynical numbers game in which the registry bets that a percentage of discounted domain names will renew at full fee. However, it is cheaper for a bad actor to drop the discounted domain name and register a new one. Some of the heavily discounted new gTLDs have a completely different domain name length spectrum to normal gTLDs due to the use of programatically generated domain names. SSAC's letter is quite good but it does not go far enough. If the same people are making the same mistakes in the new round of gTLDs then the same thing will happen leaving ccTLDs to take over the market that once was that of gTLDs. (This is already happening in many country level markets and .COM has plateaued and growth has shifted to the local ccTLDs.) This does need action by ICANN to prevent the same problems arising again with the new round. Before there are any concrete moves on the next round, the problems with the current round need to be addressed and fixed. Though it may be difficult to discern from the registry reports, some of the new gTLDs have rather dire renewal rates. This is a classic indicator of heavy discounting and declining demand. It would also be a good thing not to rely too heavily upon the rather sunshine and lollipops views of "awareness" in the CCRT report because the new gTLDs didn't quite turn out like that. Regards...jmcc
Holly
On Sep 9, 2019, at 10:02 PM, Bastiaan Goslings <bastiaan.goslings@ams-ix.net> wrote:
Thanks, Andrei - I find the last part of particular interest:
'it remains a significant concern for the SSAC that the last round of new gTLDs appears to have introduced the phenomenon of TLDs with exceptionally high rates of abusive registrations. It is also not clear if the ICANN Community is effectively addressing these potential threats and risks or what kind of deliberation will occur on how to mitigate them through consensus policy or contractual negotiation. The SSAC continues to be concerned that a further round of new gTLDs could be delegated prior to comprehensive metrics and mitigations being put in place to prevent such a recurrence. To assist the community, the SSAC is planning to study this issue and provide advice accordingly.’
regards, Bastiaan
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On 9 Sep 2019, at 13:21, Andrei Kolesnikov <andrei@rol.ru> wrote:
Dear colleagues, The letter regarding ICANN org's preparation toward implementation of a new round of gTLDs <https://www.icann.org/en/system/files/files/ssac2019-07-30aug19-en.pdf> has been published and also been sent directly to Cyrus Namazi, Senior Vice President, GDD.
Thank you, --andrei -- Andrey Kolesnikov RIPN.NET
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