Hi Geoff, At 04:19 PM 04-01-2018, Geoff Huston wrote:
Carlos, (I'm asking because you posted a "me too") what is the data set you are using to justify this call to be "over soon"? It seems to me that in the absence of new data, the only changed factor is your own appetite for risk. Without additional data, your tolerance for risk appears to increase over time (*). But is this altered personal perception of the risk sufficient motivation to proceed? Objectively, if the numbers in September 2017 gave sufficient grounds to pause, and the numbers haven't changed (**) then surely the grounds for pausing the operation as as strong now as they were in September (***).
There is the following in the KSK rollover plan: "The Design Team is unaware of what specific objectives would be achieved by delaying a KSK roll". The plan was put on hold because of the data from September 2017. At the moment it is unknown if/when there will be a KSK roll. Is not doing a KSK roll by 2020 [1] a viable option? Regards, S. Moonesamy 1. The date is based on a statement in the DPS.